Wednesday, February 27, 2013

New Zealand House Prices at a Critical Level?

Three headlines today make me even more certain a train-wreck in the New Zealand housing market is coming.

HSBC Bank Premier offers lowest fixed 3 yr home loan rate in 10 years. HSBC has launched three new fixed home loan specials at 4.99%...more

It appears banks may be signalling the end of low interest rates and also a lack of demand from buyers in the market. How? Because banks are falling over themselves to drag in the last Mums and Dads into the market.

Only NZD currency depreciation can push short-term interest rates higher...more

Today the NZD lost 1 cent. If this were to happen in a dramatic way in the near future, house prices will burst.

House price expectations rocket...more

An indicator of a bubble. Not so in gold or silver.

Then there are those who have been too quick to come out on the mainstream press to announce gold's demise. They have their reasons and may be quite sincere in their evaluations. However, gold is nowhere near crashing and has been nowhere near a bubble.

When was the last time you saw headlines like the ones today about gold. Right, not since the 1980 parabolic climb. Mums and Dads still don't understand gold. Even top financial advisors don't get it; but then they are usually looking to short term gains for client profit.

Gold in New Zealand dollars: $1953.99 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $35.56 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19 per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service. Your reference when you order: an-001
_____________________________________________________________

Go More Raw Seven Day Raw Food Program

Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

There is no Fever like Gold Fever

This from Antal E. Fekete:

Here is an update on the backwardation in gold that started on December 2 at an annualized discount rate of 1.98% and 0.14% to spot in the December and February contracts. It continued and worsened on December 8, 9, and 10 as shown by the corresponding rates widening to 3.5% and 0.65%. It is nothing short of awesome.

This is a premonition of a coming gold fever of unprecedented dimensions that will overwhelm the world as soon as its significance is fully digested by the doubting Thomases. The worsening of backwardation must be viewed in the context of the gold price bouncing back from the lows of last week. It shows that the ‘gold bashing’ on Friday was done in the December contract. It is quite revealing that the spot price bounced back more than the futures price. The bulls are on the warpath. They have unearthed the hatchet. They have stopped eating from the hands of the clearing members...rest here

Gold in New Zealand dollars: $1913.46 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $34.89 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19 per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service. Your reference when you order: an-001
_____________________________________________________________

Go More Raw Seven Day Raw Food Program

Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________

Thursday, February 21, 2013

Hold Fast?

This in today from Chris Martenson at Peak Prosperity:

A Time to 'Hold Fast'

It's only human to have your confidence shaken when the market acts so completely differently than you think it should for so prolonged a time. Chris and I feel the same pain, both constitutionally as well as in our wallets, as much of our net worth is invested in the PMs.

But every time we go through the exercise of challenging our assumptions, we walk away feeling certain that our charted course is the correct one – and that at some point, fundamentals will prevail.

As for what those fundamentals are, there's a seminal piece Chris wrote back in 2011 called The Screaming Fundamentals for Owning Gold and Silver that is even more true today. I highly recommend revisiting it.

Full article here

Gold
in New Zealand dollars: $1880.78 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $34.16 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19 per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service. Your reference when you order: an-001
_____________________________________________________________

Go More Raw Seven Day Raw Food Program

Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Protection and Creation of Wealth

Commentary from http://edgetraderplus.com/

"The point for buyers of PMs is for both protection and creation of wealth.  Protection
against insidious central bankers destroying currency-purchasing power, over time,
and wealth creation as evidenced by those buying PMs over the past decade and seeing
the intrinsic value grow dramatically.

Buyers of the physical are less price sensitive and view current declines as opportunity
to add more.  As an example, we still hold physical silver purchased when price was in
the mid-40s.   Has the relative value declined?  Absolutely.  Concerned?  Absolutely not.
It remains a matter of time when the price of PMs will go dramatically higher, and the
concern will not be how much one paid, $1800 or $1600 the ounce for gold, or $45 or
$30 the ounce for silver.  The concern will be over having any at all.

If gold is to go to $3,000, $4,000 $5,000, or wherever, and silver go to $100, $150, or
$250, there will be many who will be glad to have paid $2,500 the ounce for gold, and
$75  the ounce for silver.  How does that compare to $1,800 and /or $45 purchases for
physical PMs, at this point?  One cannot always time the market, which is why consistent
buying over time is strongly recommended, but one can determine whether to be an
owner of PMs, or not.

The problem moving forward is fear of central bankers changing the rules and precluding
the purchase of any PMs by the public, at any price.  Death and taxes are touted as the
two things one cannot escape, [not always true for the latter], but the certainty of lies and
deception by central bankers/planners runs an immediate third place.

The handwriting is on the wall, as most in PMs know only too well.  We mention this for
those on the fence, those waiting for “bargains,” [misplaced values, there], and those who
have not yet purchased any PMs.  Do not wait, do not wait, do not wait!"

Gold in New Zealand dollars: $1901.48 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $34.99 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19 per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service. Your reference when you order: an-001
_____________________________________________________________

Go More Raw Seven Day Raw Food Program

Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________

Sunday, February 17, 2013

Worried about the Gold price?

For those of you worried about the price of gold going down? Read this, "I can go to sleep at night and know one thing–the Fed will not allow deflation. The reason is simple, according to Harris...Debt based societies cannot absorb a deflationary spiral." - Yra Harris, legendary and longtime commodities trader.

And also remember, gold is the ultimate value yardstick.
_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service. Your reference when you order: an-001
_____________________________________________________________

Go More Raw Seven Day Raw Food Program

Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

House Prices in New Zealand v Gold - January, 2013

In January, 2013, the gold ounce to house price ratio has moved in favour of gold. It now takes 10 gold ounces less to buy the median priced Auckland house than it did in December, and 7 ounces less to buy a median priced house in New Zealand.

The media say the Auckland property market is doing very well, but look at the figures for the past 4 years verses gold, the housing market in Auckland is stagnant. Perhaps this is not the time to be getting huge mortgages?





Gold in New Zealand dollars: $1971.09 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $37.06 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19 per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service. Your reference when you order: an-001
_____________________________________________________________

Go More Raw Seven Day Raw Food Program

Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________

Monday, February 11, 2013

Harry Markopolos Interview

Interview-Harry Markopolos: "How I found the world's biggest Ponzi scheme 8 years before it collapsed, yet no one would listen'. Courtesy of www.interest.co.nz


Gold in New Zealand dollars: $1996.17 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $37.63 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19 per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service. Your reference when you order: an-001
_____________________________________________________________

Go More Raw Seven Day Raw Food Program

Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________

Thursday, February 7, 2013

LIBOR Scandal - Where's the Anger?

Where is the outrage regarding the LIBOR scandal?

Why are we all not out in the streets with pitchforks and torches like the angry peasants of old? These arrogant traders have robbed you of your money buy manipulating worldwide interest rates.

And all we can see are the tumble-weeds blowing through the quiet streets.

It appears the only retribution we have managed is for the banks themselves to 'punish' the guilty. Punishing them with less bonuses and firing a few. No one goes to prison for defrauding your grandmother out of funds that were hers or stealing your future wealth through your retirement funds.

Oh dear, what have we all become.

Read this from the Telegraph today and weep:

"Emails published by the Department of Justice, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Financial Services Authority showed traders boasting about their ability to profit from rigging interest rates.
“Its [sic] just amazing how libor fixing can make you that much money,” wrote a senior yen trader, who described the market as a “cartel”.
According to the investigators, RBS traders used so-called “wash trades” to pay £211,000 to friendly brokers to reward them for persuading other banks to change their Libor submissions to the benefit of their trading positions.
“Right listen we’ve had a couple of words with them. You want them lower, right?” wrote a broker to one unnamed RBS yen trader. “Yeah,” replied the trader.
In another instant message a trader apologised to a Libor submitter for his repeated requests to raise and lower rates, saying he was acting “like a whores drawers”.
So far 15 employees have been sacked as a result of the scandal and a further six are being put through a disciplinary process by the bank." ...more

Gold in New Zealand dollars: $2007.18 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $38.01 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19 per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service. Your reference when you order: an-001
_____________________________________________________________

Go More Raw Seven Day Raw Food Program

Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________

Monday, February 4, 2013

Bonds on the Brink of Chaos

There are indicators showing that there is a shift taking place in the financial markets of huge proportions.

One you might want to heed.

Here are a few thoughts and observations from my current reading.

Here is a list of the major market trends since the 1970s:
1970s Commodities
1980s Bonds and the Japanese Stock market
1990s US stock market and Technologies
2000s Commodities and Bonds
2010s Stocks?

So it appears the 30 year trend in bonds is coming to an end? So what happens if bonds go the way of the Dodo? Who benefits and where does this place precious metals?

Stocks are now outperforming bonds. The DOW has just shot through 14,000 for the first time in 5 years. Maybe there is that stiring in the dark places of the interest swap market that is indicating a rise in future interest rates. Bonds will be subject to losses if interest rates rise. Some big players maybe seeing this and beginning to race out of bonds and placing their money in stocks where they see (initially) the best return. They may even see the stock market as a safe-haven?

If you treat gold and silver as commodities, and the likelihood is that silver still very much behaves like a commodity for now (see graphs below), then you may think the bull market in gold and silver may also be in jeopardy because of this giant trend shift to stocks.

1 year Continuous Commodity Index chart
1 year Silver chart

Note the correlation between silver and the CCI as compared to silver in the past year.

But that will probably not happen. In Figure 3 (courtesy of goldseek.com), gold has been offering a distinct advantage over bonds. Historically, gold performs well during periods of inflation. Bonds, however, are severely hurt by inflation, which wipes out the purchasing power of the principal balance as well as the purchasing power of the bond yield.

 

Well, that's the story for gold and bonds, but what about this new trend to stocks. Will this see gold and silver being out-muscled in the bull market game as compared to stocks.

Probably not. Remember those days of high inflation in the 1970s when investors ran to precious metals for safety? This is the most likely outcome when the stock trend runs out of steam, which it is likely to do very quickly in this current volatile environment.

Of course, such a trend into stocks may help the economy feel better and people feel richer which the Fed wanted. But the flight out of bonds poses even more difficult scenarios. Governments require bond sales to finance already bloated current and future spending and interest expenses. Hang onto your hats for an increase in the debasement of money as direct debt monetisation ramps up to finance bonds directly.

Great investors have recommended that you switch between stocks and bonds depending on when one or the other gets overvalued. But what if, this time it is different, and they both go bad together. In other words, confidence in both to hold value gets hammered for the last time.

What then? What will you want to be holding in your hand?

Gold in New Zealand dollars: $1977.17 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $37.63 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19 per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service. Your reference when you order: an-001
_____________________________________________________________

Go More Raw Seven Day Raw Food Program

Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________

Friday, February 1, 2013

Gold, the Dollar and Value

This from Freegold:

"Historically, the medium of exchange deflates against the store of value to reinstate real value to money. In a gold money system, this meant that either the physical gold rose in value, or the excess paper coupons in circulation to represent it must be destroyed, to return to a monetary value equilibrium. This process is the bank failures and loss of saver’s money. This "monetary value equilibrium" can be found as a balance in the ratio of value between the store of value and the medium of exchange monetary functions. Today though, the debt-based dollar is used in all three monetary functions, meaning that the store of value has a counterparty.

The counterparty holds dollars (and derivatives thereof) as collateral assets. How can the dollar deflate against itself? “Deflation is impossible in today's dollar terms because policy will allow the printing of cash, if necessary, to cover every last bit of debt...” If the debt this present monetary system utilizes for all three monetary functions is allowed to default, which would be the natural course of events, it will quickly cascade into default on the sovereign nation level and complete systemic collapse. The only way to counter this is the printing of more (and more...) money by the Fed to buy all this debt, until ultimately it buys it all. When debt-based fiat is used concurrently for all three monetary functions, these are the only two options when the debt load finally becomes too large.

The dollar cannot deflate against itself. It can collapse in total default, or collapse in hyperinflation. Under the current arrangement with the dollar as the "only money”, these are the only two options to restore the monetary value equilibrium. What if, in a break with tradition, the current monetary function arrangement were altered? With the debt-based dollar performing all three monetary functions, we face a choice between two unpalatable options, both of which culminate in collapse.

Circumstances dictate a different medium be assigned the store of value function, to give the dollar something to deflate against. Voila! A third option, one which does not result in collapse. The only feasible store of value the market can select is the same one the market had always used, because it is the only medium meeting all the criteria that the store of value requires, with the top of the long list being... no counterparty, and the inability to create more at will. Physical Gold."

Gold in New Zealand dollars: $1982.370 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $37.50 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19 per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service. Your reference when you order: an-001
_____________________________________________________________

Go More Raw Seven Day Raw Food Program

Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________