Friday, March 30, 2012

Precious Metals Manipulation or No Manipulation? That is the Question.

After looking around the precious metals markets for about six years now, I come across the 'precious metals are manipulated theory' a lot.

Various arguments to the negative are put out by commentators like Jeff Christian of the CPM Group. Jeff has a strong intellect and knowledge. He concludes no manipulation. Kitco is another regular poo pooer of the manipulation theory. They say, "Just because the gold market is down doesn't mean there is a conspiracy behind it."

It appears that writers like Ed Steer and Ted Butler see manipulation in every down-move of the market. There go JPM et al again on their short sales, driving down prices for their own benefit. After all, they hold a lions share of all the short positions in the silver market, adding up to phenomenal amounts of paper silver ounces. Just can't be right, they conclude.

Sometimes I wonder whether they just trott out the same reasons in order to keep their constituent readers happy and 'on board' rather then think of the macro reasons that precious metals may be deteriorating in price. Laziness on their part perhaps?

Then there is GATA. I like the work of GATA. They are very passionate in their dealings and theories. I do find Bill Murphy rather shrill at times, but beside that, he knows more about the market and trading than I ever will. But even the best can have clouded thinking and emotions on this topic. For Bill and GATA, for me, the jury is out.

I could name other sites like King World News, a site of very useful free information, but again, prone to onesidedness on manipulation. Tfmetalsreport.com is another who can see manipulation demons in every graph. Perhaps rightly so. The logic the Turd puts forth appears very sensible. Once again a trader of many years experience.

Whether the market is manipulated or not, to me is moot. Let the newsletter and website owners protect their spaces and spout their theories. In the end, the market will wake up and have its say on precious metals manipulation anyway.

I do wonder whether gold and silver fever is alive and well and still clouds the opinions of many.

However, do any of my opinions change anything about the actual precious metals market and whether it is manipulated or not? Does it change whether I sell or buy physical gold and silver? No. It's not manipulation that I look at, it is the debt based system creaking at the seams.

Got physical gold anyway? But don't let me manipulate your thinking.

Gold in New Zealand dollars: $2032.79 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $39.44 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19
per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

YOUnique Gold and Silver

Buy small, affordable physical gold and silver or start a savings program towards
physical gold or silver grams for as little as US$25 per month.

_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service.
Your reference: an-001
_____________________________________________________________


Go More Raw Seven Day Raw Food Program

Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________

Thursday, March 29, 2012

Gold Prices to Rise for the Muppets

Oh dear, Goldman Sachs says gold prices are too low.

Their reasoning? Interest rates are low, therefore gold is too low. Is this a good analysis or are they setting up us Muppets for yet another fall?

When interest rates are high, gold tends to be low in price. Note the 1980s. Recently, the market appears to have been factoring in a rising in interest rates as the economy seemed to be growing. But it appears the market went a bit crazy on the positive side and sold too much gold in order to take advantage of higher interest rates. In other words, the recent correction and sidways movement in gold prices is not sustainable.

Goldman Sachs seems to be saying that gold needs to rise on this false dawn news about the economy as it corrected to the downside too far.

The other factor is the Federal Reserve hinting this week of more quantitative easing. This will have the effect of keeping interest rates low in the near term. An admission that the economy isn't going as well as even the Fed led us all to believe just a month ago.

So GS are predicting a gold price of around $1840 per ounce in six months. Well, as much as we distrust these guys, this forecast would seem to me to be reasonable, maybe even a little on the light side.

But who knows. We are all Muppets anyway.


Gold in New Zealand dollars: $2035.14 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $39.23 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19
per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

YOUnique Gold and Silver

Buy small, affordable physical gold and silver or start a savings program towards
physical gold or silver grams for as little as US$25 per month.

_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service.
Your reference: an-001
_____________________________________________________________


Go More Raw Seven Day Raw Food Program

Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

The Year Ahead; Some Thoughts

So what of the rest of 2012? Other than a Mayan prediction of doomsday on December 12, which is utter nonsense, what can we look forward to in the financial markets?

It appears that Central Bank policy will not change. Mr Bernanke has signaled, just yesterday, that 'monetary accommodation' will continue. You see, interest rates cannot be allowed to rise. Rising interest rates mean the end-game for the US dollar. Yet another blow to savers as their returns get decimated and their purchasing power gets smashed as prices go up. In 2011, the interest bill for the US government was around half a trillion dollars. Interest rates are critical.

Oil and energy. Oil will continue to move upwards, but will likely be curtailed with all the fire-power the West can muster, as prices must not go ballistic before the US election in November. If they do, history tells us that the incumbant President will not be re-elected. Economic growth estimates are curtailing now anyway, this might save the consumer from higher gas (petrol) costs? However, with growth dwindling, oil is still around US$125 per barrel, so there are severe presures on energy costs.

Nuclear energy is now back on the table as Fukushima becomes a distant political bandwagon. The US has announced it is building its first nuclear reactor in 30 years. China and many other countries are ramping up production as well.

War, forget it. War with Iran is not going to happen. Too much at stake for the energy costs of the West. Continued bluster is the order of the day.

China? China is probably between a rock and a hard place. Their economy is contracting and they have domestic inflation and an increasingly frustrated populous to contend with. Globally, they do not want to see the US dollar lose its supremacy. At least while they hold $1.8 trillion in US debt and around $4 trillion in reserves. They will continue to purchase assets globally in order to use these reserves.

There will be increasing activity in the horn of Africa as Western interests try to bring stability there in order to take advantage of reported huge new oil reserves in the area. US and other Special Forces are doing what they do best in that region right now.

In this, the South Pacific region, we are already seing a tail-off in exports of commodiites from Australia and New Zealand as the global economy contracts. Dairy prices here will likely continue to move downwards this year, negatively impacting our economy. The same with Australian exports of raw materials. We will also see our alliances with the US and other Asian countries like Singapore grow in importance. This week there is a joint exercise in New Zealand with Australia, Singapore and US forces.

In Europe, the sovereign debt curse will continue. There is a slight hiatus right now, but where on earth will Greece get $260 billion dollars to service it's current debt load? Who knows. The ECB couldn't even supply the finance for the latest round  and Greece had to default on $100 billion of that debt. Then there is Spain, the big grey elephant in the dark corner of the European room. A huge economy thumbing its nose at the Eurocrats and refusing to cut its deficit. Spain will be the bogey this year.

So there you go, just a few thoughts on the world going forward this year. Much more to talk about I'm sure, but in the end, today we are scrambling to keep it all together and there doesn't appear to be much vision out there to move us out of this crisis.


Gold in New Zealand dollars: $2047.42 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $39.70 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19
per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

YOUnique Gold and Silver

Buy small, affordable physical gold and silver or start a savings program towards
physical gold or silver grams for as little as US$25 per month.

_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service.
Your reference: an-001
_____________________________________________________________


Go More Raw Seven Day Raw Food Program

Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________

Monday, March 26, 2012

True Wealth Education

So there is another gold and silver rally about to begin. This is the buzz on the internet. Will it happen? The charts say so plus bullish COT figures and Central Bank buying. Add to this demand and supply fundamentals for silver. All good, apparently.

While these chartists and commentators do their best to predict price movements, they are rarely reliable enough to follow closely with your money.

No one is good enough to predict minute price movements. If they were, I would be Bill Gates on steroids.

My take on daily, monthly and even yearly movements is ambivalent. It's not about price movement, it's about knowing why you own precious metals in this environment.

The main reason I write this blog is to help you shape your thoughts about the financial system; how fiat money works and to change your perspective on what real wealth is.

I am a mechant of gold and silver. I am a busines owner for YOUnique wealth, a business that allows me to offer you physical gold and silver from my 'shop' or for you to become a business owner as well. To me, this company is a great opportunity as a business deal, but also a great way to buy and save in gold and silver.

But do I write this blog in order to sell stuff to you? Sure it would be nice if you joined me, but my prime motive is to pass on the knowledge I am gaining about true wealth and how you can preserve yours. YOUnique has a great knowledge base to draw on.

Will the prices go up this week? Probably, but the real question is, do you own precious metals in preparation for however this current paper mess pans out.

Thanks for listening.


Gold in New Zealand dollars: $2033.01 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $39.42 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19
per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

YOUnique Gold and Silver

Buy small, affordable physical gold and silver or start a savings program towards
physical gold or silver grams for as little as US$25 per month.

_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service.
Your reference: an-001
_____________________________________________________________


Go More Raw Seven Day Raw Food Program

Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________

Friday, March 23, 2012

Gold Prices to Soar?

So, here we are in a time when gold an silver are a little confusing. Gold climbed to $1920 in September, 2011 and has now corrected to $1640. A 15% drop.

It's dark, depressing and cold. Your money in gold and silver is lost, will there ever be an end to this pain of no gain.

Dawn.

Dawn is a lovely time of day. The freshness of the air and beauty of the sky as the sun makes it's mark on the horizon. In New Zealand it is particularly clear and bright.

For gold and silver, dawn will come, prices will rise.

How can I be so sure? Debt.

Mr Bernanke has signalled there will be no QE3. The economy must rise by itself and begin to heal itself, he pontificates.

In my humble view, right now, this is simply impossible. The latest hit to this fallacy of growth is the China story. Every market is adjusting to the recent news that China's economy is drooping. Stock indexes down, commodities down, dragging gold with it, and GDP figures being revised. New Zealand is no exception. Dairy prices down 4%, and GDP barely above flat at 0.3% growth. A mere statistical error away from recession.

So as this global downturn plays out in slow burning motion, where will the new growth come from to pay back these absolutely horrendous levels of debt? Even if this debt stays stagnant, and it can't, it will be an enormous drag on economic growth, even is there is any growth to be had.

Make no mistake, with the history of Central Banks as your teacher, there will be money printing coming that will make you blush. The debt must be dealt with, and the only way forward, in Central Bank policy, is to print and devalue what they can before it all goes hyper on us and destroys the money you know so well; and perhaps still trust.

In this environment, gold and silver prices will soar as the sun comes over the hill.


Gold in New Zealand dollars: $2032.64 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $38.93 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19
per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

YOUnique Gold and Silver

Buy small, affordable physical gold and silver or start a savings program towards
physical gold or silver grams for as little as US$25 per month.

_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service.
Your reference: an-001
_____________________________________________________________


Go More Raw Seven Day Raw Food Program

Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________

Thursday, March 22, 2012

Greece, Barter and Gold

A friend passed on a thought provoking article about the current situation in Greece.

It describes how a barter economy is beginning to thrive there and how the government is actually providing incentives for this to occur (for now).

The Guardian article is entitled "Greece on the breadline: cashless currency takes off. A determination to 'move beyond anger to creativity' is driving a strong barter economy in some places."

Here's an example. "In recent weeks, Theodoros Mavridis has bought fresh eggs, fruit, olives, olive oil, jam, and soap. He has also had some legal advice, and enjoyed the services of an accountant to help fill in his tax return.

None of it has cost him a euro, because he had previously done a spot of electrical work – repairing a TV, sorting out a dodgy light. In return for his expert labour, Mavridis received a number of Local Alternative Units (known as tems in Greek) in his online network account. In return for the eggs, olive oil, tax advice and the rest, he transferred tems into other people's accounts.

"It's an easier, more direct way of exchanging goods and services," said Bernhardt Koppold, an active member of the network. "It's also a way of showing practical solidarity – of building relationships."

Isn't it incredible the way people 'find a way'. OK, so barter isn't new. But people will organise themselves in orderly ways in order to survive. Greece (and to some extent Iceland) have shown the rest of us that we do not actually need the current system in order to survive or to increase our living standards.

Sure, we may not receive the 'things' we are used to buying from our consumer debt binges. But, as Greece is learning, there are positive side-effects to leaving the consumer rat-race. For example, social networks may be stronger.

Moreover, life may be more creative, we may use our skills better. This may help us individually. Rather than using our time in a limited way to earn income for ourselves, and to be 'held back' from progressing by self-serving employers, we would have more freedom to use our skills to better serve our social network.

So how would gold and silver function in this situation? Probably quite well as a medium of exchange. Very useful indeed. But remember, Greece isn't in 'tin-hat' territory yet. Euros are still acceptable. The situation there seems more about survival with no savings to help and no jobs for earnings, rather than a break down in the monetary system.

Nevertheless, the Greeks are at a stage where they cannot earn money through employment, so need to barter their skills in order to maintain basic needs. If ever there did come a day when the fiat money system died, and you had small tradable pices of gold and silver (especially silver) as your savings, then not only would you be in the box seat to trade, but in the box seat to take advantage of assets at acceptabe values.


Gold in New Zealand dollars: $2023.67 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $39.45 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19
per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

YOUnique Gold and Silver

Buy small, affordable physical gold and silver or start a savings program towards
physical gold or silver grams for as little as US$25 per month.

_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service.
Your reference: an-001
_____________________________________________________________


Go More Raw Seven Day Raw Food Program

Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Why Gold?

It has been quiet on the markets of late. Just the usual stuff boiling in the background. Perhaps something is ready to pop at any moment.

The buildup to some form of confrontation in the Middle East continues. The appearance of Russian troops in Syria sends a 'hands' off' message to the West, while the Israeli Cabinet has voted positively for some form of military action against Iran.

But today I want to point you to this article below. Since my 'gold and silver' journey began around six years ago, there have been many questions about 'why gold and silver'.

One of the biggest misnomers is that gold doesn't provide an income in that you cannot earn interest from it. Well, this article from the Goldmoney Foundation answers this question and many more. Here is the introduction to the essay:

"There is frequent debate about the valuation of any asset or asset class. Sometimes the debate is fierce, and few investment topics evoke as much passion and controversy as gold — especially among professional investors. Many believe that gold is useless as a commodity and are sceptical of its alleged monetary value. For those that have legitimate doubts about the value of gold, this paper is an attempt to address some of those doubts."

Read the full essay here


Gold in New Zealand dollars: $2018.60 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $39.29 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19
per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

YOUnique Gold and Silver

Buy small, affordable physical gold and silver or start a savings program towards
physical gold or silver grams for as little as US$25 per month.

_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service.
Your reference: an-001
_____________________________________________________________


Go More Raw Seven Day Raw Food Program

Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Ben Davies Interview

Here is a great interview by Ben Davies of Hinde Capital

Listen here

Also, check out my new gold shop at http://www.goldshop101.com/gold-silver/. You may be especially interested in the savings plans.

Gold in New Zealand dollars: $2013.92 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $39.85 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19
per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

YOUnique Gold and Silver

Buy small, affordable physical gold and silver or start a savings program towards
physical gold or silver grams for as little as US$25 per month.

_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service.
Your reference: an-001
_____________________________________________________________


Go More Raw Seven Day Raw Food Program

Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________

Monday, March 19, 2012

Pigs in Mud

Now, I do not purport to understand banking in its entirety. I don't like them anyway and I try to have as little interaction as possible with them.

Today I see, that in New Zealand, banks have successfully lobbied our Reserve Bank to push the Basel III requirements into the distant future.

Now Basel III was instigated by the lofty G20 after the 2008 global financial crisis. They are standards that banks need to adhere to, with particular reference to requireing banks to have greater  reserve asset ratios with their Central Banks. Basel III was "designed to strengthen the regulation, supervision and risk management of the banking sector in the wake of the global financial crisis".

The reason given by our banks was the rules were too aggressive and could not possibly be introduced next by 2013.

Banks want the status quo, they want things just as they were before the GFC. It appears they have won this fight.

Now I know why I don't like banks.

The goal-posts have shifted again in favour of bank lending. Banks appear to be able to get a hold of as much liquidity as they can get their bubbly little hands on. They are acting like pigs in mud and are feeding on free money with gay abandon. And they have to foister it on anyone who doesn't yet know what their game is.

Then of course there is the other side of the equation. The borrowers. Perhaps they might like to think about what's coming down the track if they continue to take part in the bubbles forming around New Zealand and the globe. The US stock (share) market is fair fizzing along, inflated by Federal Reserve easy money. When this busts, what is next? Gold?  Tulips?

Now Bill English, the NZ Finance Minister, is saying there is no housing bubble forming in Auckland. If you look at the house price v gold ounces chart he may be correct, but there is probably a housing price increase coming if banks continue to peddle this free money. But it probably won't last as long as the 'naughties' housing bubble. This free money will be snatched away by rising interest rates quicker than you can say 'inflation'.

There is simply no way that this type of behaviour can end well. Banks peddling cheap money and then packaging up that so-called good collateral in order to resell it, had it's last stand in 2008. From then on the West has been staggering along with a dagger to the heart.

When will the system fail? With this type of unrelenting cheap credit and with Reserve Banks looking the other way on lending.

Soon.


Gold in New Zealand dollars: $2014.68 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $39.51 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19
per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

YOUnique Gold and Silver

Buy small, affordable physical gold and silver or start a savings program towards
physical gold or silver grams for as little as US$25 per month.

_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service.
Your reference: an-001
_____________________________________________________________


Go More Raw Seven Day Raw Food Program

Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________

Friday, March 16, 2012

New Zealand House Prices Steady Against Gold

NZ House Prices in Gold Ounces as at end of February, 2012

House prices in New Zealand, as measured in gold ounces, have remained relatively static since August, 2011.

Again, I reiterate that it is difficult to get a handle of what is actually happening. The figures are produced by the Real Estate Institute and a majority of the articles in the main stream press here are produced by property investor and real estate insiders.

Even using the median as a keystone is fraught with difficulty. Especially the fact that the median can be skewed heavily by sales in the top end of the market.

Nevertheless, the last few months have seen a flattening. Will house prices go up against gold or down from here?


Gold in New Zealand dollars: $2021.33 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $39.59 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19
per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

YOUnique Gold and Silver

Buy small, affordable physical gold and silver or start a savings program towards
physical gold or silver grams for as little as US$25 per month.

_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service.
Your reference: an-001
_____________________________________________________________


Go More Raw Seven Day Raw Food Program

Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________

Thursday, March 15, 2012

A Sense of Unease in the Markets

Gold, and commodities sold off today. Are we seeing a wobble of huge proportions in the markets? Is this the calm before the storm? Liquidity shuffling around in anticipation of a major event.

We saw this in 2009 and in the US credit downgrade in 2011.

What makes me think this way?

Well, there are a few small announcements in the market that have some wondering if the Greek default last week is playing out under the radar in ways that will soon reveal themselves.

The media has been reporting , well, nothing about the consquences of this Greek write-down. It almost seems business as usual. The CDS problem, is minute, and the balance sheets of those taking hits are quite OK it appears.

Then there are these types of stories which get you thinking.

"CFTC Vacates CME Clearing Europe Limited Registration as a Derivatives Clearing Organization".

Why now, what does it mean? Does it have an relation to Greece last week?

To me, it could be the murmurings and shufflings of deck chairs as the pending auction of these Greek bonds takes place next week according to the dates set by the ISDA. Watch out on March 19. Remember, this is the first western nation default since World War Two. Doesn't this make it more significant than what is reported?

One commentator has mused; ""Since the default, there seems to be a raging wildfire behind the scenes as maybe the entire Credit Default Swap (CDS) market is stressed due to the Greek default. The losses may come fast and furious once the auction is held on March 19th, based on ISDA’s Big Bang Protocol."

Gold down $33 and silver $1.40 today. I'm not concerned, as Franklin Sanders says, this is most likely the bottom of the correction from February 29.

Anyway, if this CDS market blows next week, then I would rather be holding the hard yellow and white stuff and not some paper promise from JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs.

Wouldn't you?


Gold in New Zealand dollars: $2028.73 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $39.39 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19
per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

YOUnique Gold and Silver

Buy small, affordable physical gold and silver or start a savings program towards
physical gold or silver grams for as little as US$25 per month.

_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service.
Your reference: an-001
_____________________________________________________________


Go More Raw Seven Day Raw Food Program

Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Gold Action Today

Mysterious.

How else can one explain lucidly why the gold price went down today. At one time recently, when Mr Bernanke opened his mouth, the gold price went higher. Now, when the open mouth committee meets, and Mr Bernanke speaks, down goes the price. $100 two weeks ago and now $40 last night. What did he say? Was it the lack of any mention of a QE3 type event in the near future?

One man speaketh and a market he maketh?? Absurd. Not sensible. But true.

And the people that trade on this? Do these traders know what they are doing? Do they rely solely on algorithms or are they just a heap smarter than us who are long gold?

Short answer, they sometimes win and they sometimes lose, and if you trade in the paper market, you need to be very, very good to win. Or have some inside information. That I wouldn't put past these guys.

These are days of weird happenings. Times when only the upward movement in stocks matters, and negative interest rates don't. Gold is not going down to critical levels as long as rates are negative.

But in the end, I still think those accumulating and holding physical gold and silver will be the 'last man standing'.


Gold in New Zealand dollars: $2038.33 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $40.53 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19
per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

YOUnique Gold and Silver

Buy small, affordable physical gold and silver or start a savings program towards
physical gold or silver grams for as little as US$25 per month.

_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service.
Your reference: an-001
_____________________________________________________________


Go More Raw Seven Day Raw Food Program

Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Gold and the CDS Fiasco (reprise) and the Ides of March

I had a goodish sleep. The markets were quiet and the world didn't come to an end.

Has the trigger been pushed on the CDS exposure and all is to naught, or is the pressure of the finger on metal increasing and the flash point about to spring?

Give me a dollar for all the times I have heard the term 'kicking the can down the road' in the last few years and I would be a Central Bank. Its kind of an annoying phrase, but useful nonetheless.

It appears that the ECB and the Federal Reserve were on to this Greek default six months ago. This is partly why the ECBs balance sheet has ballooned to £3.5 trillion. This is 30% of the total European GDP of over €12 trillion. Not earned, not real wealth, not even real. Just currency units created by typing 3500000000000 and pressing ENTER on a Central Bank computer keyboard. Oh if only I could do that; now what would I buy...

This is the can and the can is now being kicked in a dead-end street, soon to smack against a wall with a sickening sound.

How do I know? Because historically, cans have always eneded up in a bad place. The saying goes, history is what someone wrote about what happened, not what actually happened. What do you think is actually happening? What will 'history' report at the 'ides of March'?

In my view, what happened this week was a tightening of the finger on the trigger. The same fundamentals and forces that always work against too much debt are playing out. The situation cannot be brought under control with the current policies. What actually happens when you print currency units is that you debase the value of that currency. 1 + 1 = 2. Maths can't change.

And everyone is debasing, trying to be the last to kick the can. Not wanting to destroy their economies first. Looks like the West is losing this battle and needs other options; soon.

Let's hope that trigger finger isn't on a real gun.


Gold in New Zealand dollars: $2078.16 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $41.01 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19
per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

YOUnique Gold and Silver

Buy small, affordable physical gold and silver or start a savings program towards
physical gold or silver grams for as little as US$25 per month.

_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service.
Your reference: an-001
_____________________________________________________________


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Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________

Monday, March 12, 2012

Gold and the CDS Fiasco

Is it or isn't it a default? Is there $37 Trillion (Jim Sinclair) or $3.5 billion (ISDA) in credit default swaps triggered by this latest Greek deal on Friday?

What is going on? Gold down $20 and then up $30 within an hour on Friday.

I watched with interest as the 'alternate' gold media reacted to the latest news from Greece. There had been much made of the fact that if Greece does default there would be armageddon in the markets. An unwinding of biblical proportions. This based on the reasoning that no one really knows how much CDS exposure there is out there. Counter parties do not record these 'over the counter derivatives' on their books. It's kind of a shadowy world that some estimate to be worth around $600 trillion (only Zimbabwe knows what that sort of currency looks like).

Bloomberg states, "Greece's use of collective action clauses forcing investors to take losses under its debt restructuring triggers payouts on $3 billion of default insurance, the International Swaps & Derivatives Association said.

A total 4,323 credit-default swap contracts may now be settled after ISDA's determinations committee ruled the use of CACs is a restructuring credit event, according to a statement distributed today by Business Wire. Before the ruling, Greek swaps rose to a record $7.68 million in advance and $100,000 annually to insure $10 million of debt for five years.

A swaps trigger "raises the question of which country is next and which banks are most exposed," Hank Calenti, a bank analysts at Société Générale SA in London, wrote in a note. "Less than six months ago we had the head of the ECB exhorting that there must be no credit event on Greece," he wrote."


Now, the ISDA said the deal constituted a 'credit event' so didn't use that naughty word 'default'. So is there a technical default? Moodys says this, "According to Moody's definitions, this exchange represents a 'distressed exchange,' and therefore a debt default," the US rating firm said. "This is because (i) the exchange amounts to a diminished financial obligation relative to the original obligation, and (ii) the exchange has the effect of allowing Greece to avoid payment default in the future."

Moody's therefore use 'that' word, default.

What happens now? The markets open after bankers and investors have had nice brunches for Sunday meals and have chewed on the alternatives.  Will the market accept the $3.5 billion figure or start to dramatically unwind its positions and cause huge uncertaintly?

When I wake up of Tuesday, I guess we will know.

Happy sleeping.


Gold in New Zealand dollars: $2093.21 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $41.93 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19
per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

YOUnique Gold and Silver

Buy small, affordable physical gold and silver or start a savings program towards
physical gold or silver grams for as little as US$25 per month.

_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service.
Your reference: an-001
_____________________________________________________________


Go More Raw Seven Day Raw Food Program

Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________

Friday, March 9, 2012

The Latest Trick

The news is that the Federal Reserve in the US is going all 'sterilized' on us. We wish.

The latest news byte reveals how the Fed wants to put 'credits' into the system using a method of 'sterilization'.

Once again a new term for the same old thing, 'money printing'. These terms are designed to confuse. Ever tried to read a company financial report. It's like another language. And don't get me started on the langauge of  IT professionals.

So here we are at a junction in history when Central Banks are disguising the very means to the destruction of the paper money system that we know.

Read this post from Dave in Denver over at 'The Golden Truth'. It explains brilliantly what the Fed is doing.

Word today is that 75pc of bondholders have agreed to swap their bonds for bonds worth less. How this sort of agreement will affect sovereign bond sales from this point is moot. If you were an investor would you buy a bond knowing that the rules could change in an insatnt and you would be left, like the poor Greek bondholders, with 50% less value.

But, the ECB is covering euro bond sales and now, with this latest trick from the Fed, they are covering US Government bond issuances.

Take me off to Kansas...


Gold in New Zealand dollars: $2060.33 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $41.04 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19
per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

YOUnique Gold and Silver

Buy small, affordable physical gold and silver or start a savings program towards
physical gold or silver grams for as little as US$25 per month.

_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service.
Your reference: an-001
_____________________________________________________________


Go More Raw Seven Day Raw Food Program

Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________

Thursday, March 8, 2012

Of Interest Rates and Gold

So here in good 'ol New Zealand, the Reserve Bank Governor has kept the official cash rate at 2.5 percent.

The worry is imported inflation. Thanks to the ECB and its LTRO and the Federal Reserve and its QE, we need to control the demand for NZ dollars from the trillions sloshing around the world looking for a decent return. We suffer with our export prices being lower as well.

There was 'tepid inflation' according to the Governor, hence the stagnant OCR rate. Just tell those out there doing the real shopping each week that inflation is tepid. Tepid if you use fudged numbers.

On precious metals, it maybe that gold and silver have found a bottom this week. For what it's worth. These major bounces seem likely to continue as markets try to figure out what happens next. This week it is risk off as money flows go back again to the USD (go figure) and wait while Greece et al are sorting themselves out.

Some are calling for $1200 gold and $20 silver, but fundmanetals just don't bear this out. The debt binge of the last 40 years is coming to a head. Instead of letting it play out, fiat money is being created to keep the game going. One huge ponzi scheme. Only, not many see it.

The NZ Reserve Bank may try to control our very small patch of the woods as much as they want. They need to appear to be in control. But when you are a flea against an elephant, you are poised to be squashed.

Gold is struggling to find its fiat money value. It grows in physical tonnage by around 1.5% per year, about the same as the world population rate. Now that fiat money supply is going exponential, you tell me what will change.


Gold in New Zealand dollars: $2064.95 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $40.98 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19
per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

YOUnique Gold and Silver

Buy small, affordable physical gold and silver or start a savings program towards
physical gold or silver grams for as little as US$25 per month.

_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service.
Your reference: an-001
_____________________________________________________________


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Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

You Thought the Bird Flu Was Contagious!

Yes, Greece, again.

Why all this fuss over a little land in the sun sitting lazily on the Mediterranean? Whitewashed houses full of tourists and wine.

Contagion.

Greece needs to make a payment of €14 billion on March 20. It doesn't have any money (who does?) and will likely default.

It looks as though the private bond-holders are calling the Troika's bluff and putting the International Swap Dealers Association's backs up against the default wall. The bondholders want their money back from their insurance, they do not want to take the 50% haircut.

Those without insurance will not get their money back and will have to scratch out those assets from their balance sheets. Gone.

Then the mess starts to unravel. The light gets shone on Spain and Portugal and worry turns into fear turns into panic and depositers begin to withdraw their savings from institutions causing a bank run. As we saw in September, 2008, bank runs are nasty and require swift action by authorities. But will the contagion be able to be halted this time? After all, last time, countries used their clout to bailout businesses. Now countries are insolvent. Where do we turn to? Mars?

Stock markets and commodities, including gold, slid last night on such worries. The tipping point for all this is sensitive indeed. There is a warning that such a default in Greece will cost the eurozone €1trillion. 

I'm glad we don't print paper anymore, the Green movement would be livid. €1trillion would be a lot of trees.

Let' us all hope somebody comes up with a plan.

Gold in New Zealand dollars: $2061.43 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $40.51 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19
per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

YOUnique Gold and Silver

Buy small, affordable physical gold and silver or start a savings program towards
physical gold or silver grams for as little as US$25 per month.

_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service.
Your reference: an-001
_____________________________________________________________


Go More Raw Seven Day Raw Food Program

Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

More Paper to Move Less Gold


There has been much comment on the non-mainstream internet about the knock-down in the silver and gold prices last Wednesday.

Who did the selling into the market at such huge volumes and why? Was the takedown a manipulative attempt to suppress the gold and silver prices from indicating that something was about to occur. Something big.

Jim Sinclair is of the opinion that the take down coincided with Ben Bernake's monetary statement and the simultaneous LTRO issuance by the ECB. In order to keep the attention away from the large amount of liquidity being injected into the market by the ECB, Central Banks needed to keep the heat off the gold price. So they used their bullion bank proxies to hammer the price selling paper gold and silver contracts on the COMEX. The jawboning from Mr Bernanke about QE3 not being needed just yet also managed to help help the process.

Seems like a good theory.

Another way to look at last Wednesday is this. And I hope I have these details correct. If not, they are close.

David Morgan is of the opinion that the take downs, while really frustrating and not being dealt with by the authorities, are inherently getting more difficult to achieve results. The physical market is beginning to take over the ability for the paper selling and buying to have effect.

And what's more, the bullion banks are realising it. For example, he states that Sprott PSLV physical silver fund moved the silver price around $2 an ounce when they went to the market for around 40 million ounces of physical silver. However, it took 45,000 paper contracts (equaling 225 million ounces of silver) to move the spot price of silver down by $2.50 an ounce.

Nearly six times more paper silver required to move the market down than it took to move the market up with physical silver.

The paper shenanigens are ending, as all paper is ultimately worthless when not backed by anything. Don' play in the paper market, get physical if you can.


Gold in New Zealand dollars: $2075.37 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $41.42 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19
per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

YOUnique Gold and Silver

Buy small, affordable physical gold and silver or start a savings program towards
physical gold or silver grams for as little as US$25 per month.

_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service.
Your reference: an-001
_____________________________________________________________


Go More Raw Seven Day Raw Food Program

Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________

Monday, March 5, 2012

Will The Line Hold?


So the buzz today is that Greece will default this week. Is this a sure thing? No. Is this like a bumbling episode of Coronation Street? Yes.

It now appears remote that the €206bn voluntary bailout by bond holders will not go through as the deadline approaches this week. The word is if the collective action clauses are triggered this week, then the ISDA (Swap Dealers Association) may have to admit this is indeed a default and send the market into a frenzy. Furthermore, the amount of the credit default swaps will be brought out into the light.

There was talk of the decision last week of the ISDA to declaring, from its self-interested Towers, that the voluntary bond haircut plan will not trigger a default and hence a payout of zillions on the Credit Default Insurances held against the bonds. This was harshly criticised as the banks protecting themselves against the legal interests of insurance holders. There may be no way out for the ISDA banks now.

With well respected commentators here in New Zealand suggesting that we 'print' money to get ourselves out of the slump, and the ECB getting around their QE rules by doing the LTRO program, all this action in world markets seems a bit like heading for a cliff in slow motion.

If Greece defaults this week, we are all in uncharted territory. It will require those in power keep their heads and those holding the money maintaining the line.

If the line breaks, or wobbles, all hell could break lose.

Are you at least somewhere near protected?


Gold in New Zealand dollars: $2065.40 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $41.87 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19
per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

YOUnique Gold and Silver

Buy small, affordable physical gold and silver or start a savings program towards
physical gold or silver grams for as little as US$25 per month.

_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service.
Your reference: an-001
_____________________________________________________________


Go More Raw Seven Day Raw Food Program

Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________

Thursday, March 1, 2012

Gold and Silver Hit


Gold and Silver took a hit today. Jim Sinclair has warned often enough of extreme volatility coming in these markets. It is beginning.

Hold physical and sleep well. Ignore the short term machinations of men.

Here's a great summary from Jesse's Cafe Amercain:

"This notion that gold and silver are selling off because Bernanke is not going to do QE3 is ludicrous.  He does not need to do QE3.  The Fed is all over these markets in Operation Twist.  Jim Rickards has explained this scenario many times that I have linked here.

What is the answer? Unless you are a full time experienced trader playing with 'cool money,' stop trading. This market is far too thin and given over to gimmicks for the average person to participate. It really is.

Take long term positions that suit your investment situation, and then ignore the noise that the trading desks throw out to shake people from their positions, painting pictures on the charts to shape perception.

Bernanke is still powerful, but the trends in the longer term are even more powerful.

The volatility and gaming in the markets will only get worse, as they are thinly traded and dominated by a few big trading houses that act as they choose, almost with impunity. And if a major default is coming, the volatily will go through the roof.

You have three choices. Buy, sell, or stay out of the daily trade.

And for the vast majority, the last choice is the best, especially while the markets are given over to such inefficiency and corruption. I'm sorry, but that is the way it is. And its a shame on the government, but unfortunately these days the powerful and the elite have none.

If you have the overwhelming urge to gamble with your money, take a trip to Las Vegas or Atlantic City.  The food is better, the drinks are cheaper, and the games, although still stacked against you, are at least relatively honest.

And you don't have to worry about the Casino looting your accounts and safe deposit boxes to cover their own personal gambling losses."


Gold in New Zealand dollars: $2042.11 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $41.49 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19
per oz (30 Apr, 2011)
_____________________________________________________________

YOUnique Gold and Silver

Buy small, affordable physical gold and silver or start a savings program towards
physical gold or silver grams for as little as US$25 per month.

_____________________________________________________________

The Anglo-Far East Company
AFE is the gold bullion custodial provider of choice for the sophisticated investor,
families, and institutions that require the highest level of discretion, competence,
safety, and service.
Your reference: an-001
_____________________________________________________________


Go More Raw Seven Day Raw Food Program

Raw food can be interesting, satisfying and taste fantastic. The big bonus is the
optimum nutrition in raw food. For seven days you can put raw food to the test
and you could be pleasantly surprised.
_____________________________________________________________