Friday, July 27, 2012

European Disaster Looms

We are peculiar when it comes to nationalism. We can complain long and loud about our country and its foibles, but if someone else criticises us, then watch out.

Just look at the latest comments from Mitt Romney regarding the Olympics. He criticised the organisation claiming there were  "disconcerting" signs in London and there would be more errors occurring. Well, strike me down, after whinging and complaining for 6 years about the olympics, the English finally found somone more worthy to harrange. Seems it is OK to lambast your own citizens, but having an up-start American politician do it, well, that's 'just not on'.

Europe's current financial crisis is a bit like this. The European experiment seemed on track before 2008. The French and the Germans appeared to be forming strong ties. England even entertained the idea that the Italians were good at more than just food preparation, making cars and bunga bunga.

But the wheels have truly fallen off the European experiment now. The uniformity and comradery of the first ten years is but a memory of a dream for a united Europe.

The costs of a European breakup are now being calculated. From outright collapse of the banking system and civil war to a slow and painful restructuring of the fiscal compact and business as usual.

If Europe was to break up, the fractured nature of the outcome would cause scenarios that would be unthinkable now. If countries went back suddenly to their own currencies, there would be huge dislocation. Unemployment would rise considerably as businesses and systems adjusted to new valuations.

The worst case scenario is civil war; and maybe war across borders. Europe is by no means a settled place a mere 67 years after WW2. How many of us were surprised at the violence caused by old scores being settled after the old Yugoslavia disintegrated?

The next few years will be racked with uncertainty. World markets will be extremely volatile and unpredictable. The time has come when we all need to realise that big government is finished and that they won't be around to help us any time soon. The responsiblity for the future is now completely in our own hands.

Duncan Cameron and Alex Stanczyk, from The Anglo Far-East Company, are here in Auckland on August 20 to talk about this and more. This event is FREE.

Event Information:

Monday, 20 August 2012 AUCKLAND : REGISTER FOR EVENT
Stamford Plaza Auckland
22-26 Albert Street
Auckland, 1001
New Zealand
Telephone:  +64-9 309 8888
Toll free NZ:  0508 658 888
Facsimile: +64-9 379 6445

Gold in New Zealand dollars: $2018.36 per oz
Previous all-time high: $2311.02 per oz (15 Nov, 2011)

Silver in New Zealand dollars: $34.39 per oz
Previous all-time high: $59.19 per oz (30 Apr, 2011)

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